ISSN (print) - 0131-7652

ISSN (online) - 2686-7605

Vol. 51 No. 9 (2021)
Тема номера: Россия в энергопотоке "Большой Азии"

China as the Global Leader of Road Vehicle Electrification: Oil Market Risks

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  • M. Sinicyn
M. Sinicyn
Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, RAS, Moscow
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2021-9-53-68

Published 2021-08-27

Keywords

  • low-carbon paradigm,
  • electric cars,
  • forecast,
  • oil demand,
  • China,
  • Russian oil companies
    • ...More
    Less

How to Cite

1.
Sinicyn М. China as the Global Leader of Road Vehicle Electrification: Oil Market Risks. ECO [Internet]. 2021 Aug. 27 [cited 2024 Jul. 27];51(9):53-68. Available from: https://ecotrends.ru/index.php/eco/article/view/4310

Abstract

China is a leader of electric vehicles while transport electrification has been additionally accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper assesses the prospects for promoting electric vehicles in China, and the impact of this process on oil consumption. It is shown that in the baseline scenario, electric vehicles will displace 0.8 mbd by 2030, and 2.7 mbd by 2040. China can reach its oil peak by 2030, and importer’s niches for oil companies will be closed. Until 2025, competition for the Chinese market will intensify between Saudi Arabia, the United States, Libya and Iran. An additional risk to China’s successful policy in promoting electric mobility may be a significant increase in the export of cheap electric vehicles, which will undermine the road transport electrification in other countries and bring the global oil peak closer. China’s electrification has large negative effects on key export markets for Russian oil companies.
PDF (Русский)

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