KLIMAT: What awaits Russia’s energy industry and economy by the mid-21st century (on the New Book by T. Gustafson. Part 1)

Abstract

 The central issue of the discussed book is the impact of planetary climate change on the development prospects of the Russian energy sector and its economy as a whole. The key factor in the geopolitical and economic process is the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewable and «green» sources - solar, wind, and nuclear energy. In the Russian climate, the coming changes will be more noticeable than in other countries of the world, and Russia will be the loser, not the winner, as mostly said in the Russian media. Gustafson shows: the Russian position on the global fossil fuel markets, strong under the current conditions, in the next decade will be preserved and even strengthened (mainly due to the development of natural and liquefied gas), but after 2030 it will start to weaken, and by 2050 it will be lost. The coal industry will suffer the most, it will be displaced by alternative sources, but gas, which for some time will continue to play the role of an energy substitute for oil, will still be gone, and Russia will be in a very vulnerable position, since it will lose its income in world markets - it will have nothing to offer its traditional partners. New partners, the countries of Southeast Asia, especially China, will absorb Russian exports for some time, but they will soon leave them too. After 2040 an accelerated degradation of basic industries of the Russian economy will begin, and new ones will not be created due to resource limitations. Gustafson draws attention to the neglect of climate issues in Russian politics, pointing out that it is dangerous for the country’s future.