Exogenous Shocks and Commercial Banks' Assessment of the Outlook of Russian Enterprises

Abstract

The author considers the impact of exogenous shocks in 2014–2023 on the assessment by commercial banks of the prospects of Russian enterprises. In order to do this, the dynamics of credit rates for enterprises of different sizes is analyzed. It is shown that in 2022–2023 for the first time in the last 10 years large companies were considered as less stable and promising borrowers than small and medium-sized ones. Anti-crisis measures enacted by fiscal authorities and the government barely changed this new trend. This shock lasted longer than in the preceding years, demonstrating a “wave” character in form and substance, while the adaptability of large enterprises to each new wave of shocks is considered low. The results of the study may be applied in subsequent revision of support initiatives aimed at small, medium and large-scale enterprises.