On the Development of the Russian Railroad Network in the Eastern Range

Abstract

The paper discusses the problem of expanding the network of railroads leading to ports on the Pacific coast of Russia in the context of expanding export supplies of coal from the Elga deposit in Yakutia to China at an increasing rate and in increasing volumes. Three supply options (projects) that meet this requirement are analyzed: 1) the traditional scheme of the state corporation JSC “Russian Railways” through the existing ports on the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk; 2) a new scheme through the construction by a private corporation of a new railroad to the port of Chumikan and the port itself; 3) a ring scheme (Chinese Mohe-Jalinda-Nizhny Bestyakh-Magadan), closing to China, possibly on the rights of concession. The three projects are characterized by uncertainty of costs and results; in this regard, the task of this paper is to show how to avoid catastrophic errors in the situation of uncertainty in decision-making by means of system analysis, expert technologies and computer products developed in IEOPP SO RAS and SGUPS.