ISSN (print) - 0131-7652

ISSN (online) - 2686-7605

Vol. 53 No. 9 (2023)
Cover story: We are Here to Stay and We will Carry on Developingy!

The Gift of Sanctions: An Analysis of Assessments of the Russian Economy, 2022–2023

PDF (Русский)
  • James K. Galbraith
James K. Galbraith
University of Texas at Austin
Bio
DOI: https://doi.org/10.30680/ECO0131-7652-2023-9-8-32

Published 2023-08-30

Keywords

  • sanctions; Russia

How to Cite

1.
Galbraith ДК. The Gift of Sanctions: An Analysis of Assessments of the Russian Economy, 2022–2023. ECO [Internet]. 2023 Aug. 30 [cited 2024 Nov. 9];53(9):8-32. Available from: https://ecotrends.ru/index.php/eco/article/view/4649

Abstract

This essay analyzes a few prominent Western assessments, both official and private, of the effect of sanctions on the Russian economy and war effort. It seeks to understand the main goals of sanctions, alongside bases of fact and causal inference that underpin the consensus view that sanctions have been highly effective so far. Such understanding may then help to clarify the relationship between claims made by economist-observers outside Russia and those emerging from sources inside Russia – notably from economists associated with the Russian Academy of Sciences – which draw sharply different inferences from the same facts. We conclude that when applied to a large, resource-rich, technically proficient economy, after a period of shock and adjustments, sanctions are isomorphic to a strict policy of trade protection, industrial policy, and capital controls. These are policies that the Russian government could not plausibly have implemented, even in 2022, on its own initiative.
PDF (Русский)

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