KLIMAT: what Awaits the Energy Sector and the Whole Economy of Russia by the Middle of the 21st Century (аbout the New Book by T. Gustafson. Part 2)

Abstract

In the first part of his book, Thane Gustafson demonstrated the bleak prospects of three sectors of the economy – oil, gas, and coal – which now account for about 60% of Russia’s export revenues. He suggests that all of them are likely to decline by the middle of the 21st century. What alternatives does Russia have? The second part of the book examines the prospects for “green” technologies: hydrogen, solar, wind and atomic energy. And in these sectors the prospects are, again, not encouraging, although some successes can still be expected from nuclear power. To show how Russia will fit into the future international division of labor along alternative, non-energy lines, Gustafson discusses Russia’s agricultural sector and metallurgy, as well as the potential benefits of exploiting the warming Arctic. The author draws generally pessimistic conclusions about Russia’s prospects. In order to make a breakthrough and get rid of the threats associated with global warming, the author suggests tight integration of Russia into the world economy, creating an investment climate that will stop capital flight and attract capital back to Russia, and, above all, offering an attractive challenge to the young generation of Russians. Gustafson key factor in revitalizing Russia’s development is the development of human capital.