Labor Productivity and Opportunities for Economic Growth

Abstract

The paper analyzes labor resource limitations in Russian economy, the composition of unused labor resources and opportunities to attract them to an effective production process. The main factors that influence labor productivity (the level and dynamics of technological development and wages, the structural factor of economic growth) are considered, the possibilities of their growth and their impact on labor use efficiency are analyzed. Sectors of economy with significant reserves of labor productivity growth are identified. Estimates of labor productivity of conditionally effectively employed workers in the field of material production are given, depending on the level and dynamics of technological changes in certain sectors of economy. Production growth rates are divided into productivity growth and employment growth using a series of nominal (average annual, Rosstat statistics) and conditionally effective (author’s estimate) employment. The predictive and analytical tool that allows obtaining estimates of labor productivity depending on dynamics of gross output, productivity of primary resources, and the time factor are described in the paper. The tasks are solved using the methods of correlation and regression analysis. Estimates of key characteristics of the Russian economy forecast and the prospects for labor productivity growth (the base scenario and the investment scenario, which provides for a significant acceleration of investment dynamics) are given.